PR experts and political analysts are divided on whether Mr Cummings will have to go. While some believe he has weathered the worst of the controversy, others think the media coverage over next few days could still prove crucial in deciding his future.
Top PR agent Mark Borkowski does not think the police statement, the recent nose dive in the polls, or a revolt by dozens of Tory backbenchers will make any difference to the prime minister or his defiant strategist.
“I’ve taken a bet with some US journalists who are amazed by this story, and I’ve confidently predicted that Cummings isn’t going anywhere,” Mr Borkowski tells The Independent.
“There are those will thick skins, and there are those with very thick skins who can simply ignore all this. Cummings is that person. He doesn’t give a flying f***. He really doesn’t.”
Mr Borkowski adds: “At No 10 he’s deemed necessary and powerful and they just don’t want him to go. They’re looking at the polling and choosing to take a gamble. It’s undoubtedly damaging. Keir Starmer and Labour will be able to hark back to this and say ‘look at this privilege’. But No 10 will wait and move on to the next controversy.
“We’re seeing the Trump effect in communications globally – you make a mistake and you move on without saying sorry. You deliver a better story or happily generate another controversy to move away from the previous controversy.”